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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a P🧸oisson-Process and like that made football results🉐 calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundesliga a typical outcome of match is determined of coincide♔nce by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a potential relegation team.
Stunning: All teams in the Bundesliga have about the sam💟e conversion of chances.
Home team♉s score more goals on average. Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence that in addition to that teams perform especially well at home. Thus, home strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals ཧare scored in a match. To be precise, the number of goals has decreased over time and now amounts to 2,8.
Rather n꧋ot. 46 % of all wins are based upon a on🌠e-goal-margin.
No. Only about 25% of matches result ins draw. By implica🐻tion 75% ofﷺ matches have a winner!
Yes, but since the middle♏ of the 80s, the number of away wins is constantly getting bigger. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extraordinary: On the last two maಞtch days about 20% more goals are sco🍌red than on average. So: Bet on higher results!
The goal differente of past matches is especially informative for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly more informative than the number of points. The expec♊ted amount of goals, on the 🍷other hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goa༒lscoring opportunities are a lot more informative ღfor the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly better conversion.
The market value of a team as determined 🧜before the start of the season is extremely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional poin💯ts or a goal difference increased by 16 goals.
A season-specific average Performance level of a team does exist. (Performance level = goal difference that a te✤am scores against an average opponen♎t)
The coincidence averages out during the c💫ourse of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunities display the performances of t🔯eams.
A football mat𝔍ch is dominated by effects of coincidence. Additionally the performance level of offense and defense are correlated.
Without effects of coincidence, the difference of goalscoring opportunities would per♛fectly predict the performance level.
The goal difference is determin𝕴ed by effects of coinci💫dence with 86% (match day) or 29% (season) on average.
Fluctuations of performance levels from match day to match day are, therefore, not statistically relevant. The changes of performances levels take place during the summer break a🀅nd only rare
There are no positive series. The concept of a “streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series - those do exist. As 🌌Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you 🐼got shit on your foot, you got shit on your foot!“
In the context of statistical preciseness, the c𝓀onversio🔴n of effective goalscoring opportunities is identical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promoted teams is astonishingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are🌠, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march through“ is very special.
With the help of the market value and 🌌the effective differente of goalscoring opportunities you can come closer to the perfect prediction of the second ha🍨lf of the season..
No. In fact only in half of the cas♍es the best team wins 𝓀and becomes German champion at the end of the season.
No. Statistically, there are no bogey team. The scientist’s search for bogey teams was negative. Looki💯nཧg at it statistically the effect is under 10%.
Of course we know! But it is e♐ꦺnough for today, we will let you know another rime.