Looking for value in bets is the only viable betting strategy in the long term. When you consistently identify value in bookies' odds by comparing them with your own calculated probabilities, you significantly boost your chances of beating the bookies over a series of bets. In this article, we will explain how to calculate and detect value betting.
- 1 Best Betting Sites We Recommend for Va𒐪lue Betting in 2♎024
- 2 Value Betting Software
- 3 How To Identify a Value Bet
- 4 Value Betting Coin Toss Example
- 5 What Is Gambling Value?
- 6 How To Calculate Expected Value(EV) in Betting
- 7 Expected Value & Variance
- 8 Other Strategies To Find Value in Betting
- 9 ThePuntersPage Final Say
- 10 FAQs
Best Betting Sites We Recommend for Value Betting in 2024
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Value Betting Software
Looking for a value betting app or bot? There are several software options ෴that help you identify value bets, as listed�� below:
RebelBetting Review
RebelBetting offers downloadable software as well as a value betting app and a product for detecting arbitrage bets.
The software not only shows the day’s value bets but also provides an estimation o🐠f their va👍lue, giving you the edge in your betting endeavours.
The tracker serves as a treasure trove of data, sparing you the hassle of creating endless Excel spreadsheets to track the data yourself. It consolidates all your bets in one single location, complete with graphs illustrating your winnings over time. Moreover, you can keep a real-time tab on 🀅your account balances, making it the ultimate betting companion!
How does it work?
Simply click on the bet and the software will direct you to the specific bookie. It has a bet tracker that tracks your specific bets. The video below explains how t🍸o use it:
The software looks for overpriced odds as a way to beat the bo🌟okmakers. It does this by essentially comparing odds and automatically detects arbitrage options, allowing you to bet on all outcomes and still make a profit.
The site has a proven yield on 2.5%, which is qꦜuite impressive, and has ha🐠d millions of bets placed.
Of course, value bets do not stay around forever since odds are constantly being updated, so you will have to log in regularly to check for the latest ﷽odds.
RebelBetting Pricing & Profit Guarantee
RebelBetting is moderately priced — at least for serious bettors with a decent bankroll. It costs £23 a month for the first three months or a total of £69. If you want the full package, RebelBet🅠ting Pro (including bot𝐆h betting products) costs £43 a month for the first three months.
Best of all, they hav💜e a profit guarantee, meaning if you do not make a profit in the first month, you will get the next month free!
Trademate Sports Review
Trademate Sports provide𓄧s a valuable, user-friendly ༺tool for detecting value bets.
How does it work?
A message will automatically pop up in your browser every time a value bet is detected. How Trademate detects these bets is a matter o൩f secrecy (we suppose if you had a good strategy for detecting value bets, you would not share it too easily either!). However, as you can see from the video below, a lot comes from comparing odds at various bookies.
Trademate Free Trial
The best thing about Trademate is its one-month free trial, allowing you to identify bets and use the software to your advantage! We ൩recommend it to both novice and seasoned punters.
Smarkets Review
While it certainly isn’t your typical bookmaker, Smarkets has established itself as one of the world’s leading betting exchanges since 𒐪its emergence in 2008.
How does it work?
Smarkets operates like any other betting exchange, although its 2% commission fees have widely been lauded as one of the lowest around. This bookie allows you to place back and lay bets. In the former, you're betting on an outcome to happen, while in the latter, ꦬyou’re essentiaꦿlly betting on the outcome not happening.
Coral Review
There’s nothing particularly outstanding about Coral, but this bookmaker does everything well. It’s regarded as an industry behemoth, and it’s no surprise that you can take advantage ღof a varied sportsbook with competitive odds.
How does it work?
While the bookie doesn’t offer any particular tips or hacks in regard to value betting, it boasts supremely generous odds and a wide range of markets. While reviewing the bookie, I realised that there’s no overlooking Coral’s particularly generous football odds — they're among the very best around. I found this out by using the ▨odds overround to calculate the consistency of their odds on football matches.
Moreover, new customers can take advantage of their excellent welcome offer. What’s not to like about Coral?
Betfred Review
With over 50 years of tradition, Betfred is one of the UK’s oldest bookmakers. Like Coral, it nails the basics and is fundamentally sound. As a result, its sportsbook is broad, while you can access a litany of sportsbook promotions which cover an array of sports. I must also commend Betfred’s blog, which is superbly detailed and certaꦇinly worth checking out.
How does it work?
Betfred is another premier book🗹maker that doesn’t offer anything in particular, but it features great odds and excellent promotions. What stands out in particular is the number of daily offers you can take advantage of. For major events, Betfred will almost always offer price boost — especially on big football matches, which means you can back teams that are often likely to win at a higher price.
How To Identify a Value Bet
If you see something as more likely than what the bookie's odds iဣmply, you have perhaps identified a value bet. The following concepts will help you to determine this.
Implied Probability
A bookie’s odds always imply a certain probability.
For example, odds of 2.1 imply a probability of 47.62%.
True Odds
Bookie’s odds are based on their models, statistics, and more. They are usually go♊od enough to make sure൩ that they have a good income, but are not always perfect.
Bookie’s odds are usually a good indication of the true odds of an event, but what the true odds really are can be hard to calculate. As part🍸 of your betting strategy, you need to estimate what you think the true odds 💃of an event are and compare them to the bookie’s.
Value Bets
The value of a bet is the difference between your estimation of the odds and implied probability, and the bookie’s odds and probabilities. You canౠ express it in terms of p𝔍robability or in odds.
Expected Value (EV)
Expected value is your average value over the course of multiple bets. It shows you the edge you have on average over the bཧookmakers.
Value Betting Coin Toss Example
🎶 A coin toss has only two outcomes: heads or tails⛄.
In normal circumstances, the odds of the coin landing on heads or tails is 50%. If you hav🍷e a fair bet on either option, you will get odds of 2.00 or 1/1. Now imagine if someone offered you odds of 2.20 to bet on heads. While there is still a risk of losing your money, you would almost be crazy not to take the bet.
Of course, the ideal situation would be if you could bet on it multiple times. You would also have to manage your bankroll. Betting your whole wallet comes with a risk, since y🎀ou still have a 45.45𝐆% chance of losing.
The ideal would be to bet a small portion of your bankroll multiple timꦺes. That wa🍨y, you will ultimately win more money than you lose.
TIP:
The Kelly Criterion has a formula that suggests how much of your bankroll to bet, depending on your estimation of value. To ease the maths, we created an online Kelly Criterion Calculator, which is free and easy to use!
What Is Gambling Value?
In sports betting, it is impossible to know the true odds. You can only use various methods to estimate what the true odds of a𒐪n event are. If you can find a better method of estimating what the⛄ odds are than the bookies, you have found a way to predict the value in betting.
Value Football Betting Example
As with any sport, football is full of variables and it’s incredibly hard to predict outcomes. As a result, prop/statistics ⛎bets have become ♔increasingly popular with bookies offering an array of such markets.
Bookies rely on data gathered from thousands of matches, which means their odds reflect average outcomes more than extreme ones. If a team is producing high numbers consistently for certain game statistics, such as corners or goals during a specific competition like the or Champion💛s League, bookies' odds oftenཧ don’t reflect it.
Example
There are an average of 13.2 corners in Manchester United Premier League matches this season, but the league’s average per game is just 10.71. So, if the bookie’s odds do not reflect the average corner collection in 💦United matches. For instance, if a bookmaker offers over/under corner odds of 1.9 for over 12.5 corners, this would a good opportunity for value. How exactly to quantify the value can be difficult, but if you estimate it very likely that United will keep up their corner streak, you have a value bet.
Value Betting Horse Racing Example
Horse racing is another sport where looking for value is essent👍ial. Just like in ওany other sport, it is up to you to find where bookies are overestimating or underestimating the likelihood of any event.
Example
A horse has odds of winning set at 10/1, or 11.00 in decimal odds, giving you an implied probability of 9.09%. This may seem like an attractive bet — after all, betting £10 awards you £100 extra if you win. However, you believe that this horse is actually overvalued by the bookies and actually has a 💯much smaller chance to win. Therefore, there is no value in the bet, and you should stay away from it.
How To Calculate Expected Value(EV) in Betting
There is a formula to calculate the value of your bet. Of course,🦹 this calculation is only a reflection of your estimation of the true odds of the event — it is only as accurate as your own estimation.
Expected Value Betting Formula
You can easily calculate the v✨alue of your bet using the following formula:
Value = (Amount won per bet x probability of winning) – (Amount lost per bet x probability of losing)
Let's look back at our football example from above and assume you bet 𝕴£10 at💫 the odds of 1.9. You give a conservative 60% chance that Team A will score more than 12.5 corners.
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Amount won per bet: £10 x 1.9 = 19 (bet times odds)
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Probability of winning: 60% or 0.6 (your estimated probability)
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Amount lost per bet: £10 (your bet amount)
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Probability of losing: 40% or 0.4
The Value of this bet is thus:(£19 x 60%) – (£10 x 40%) = £7.4
That means that 🔜you would win on average £7.4 for every £10 that you bet ℱif you placed the same bet a multiple number of times. Of course, this is only if your analysis of the odds is correct. While we chose to use an extreme example, in real life, you would usually have a much smaller margin.
Expected Value & Variance
It is very important to look at your own expected value over the course of a large number of bets. Volume is essential. Once you know how much your results vary from your expected value, you can calculate your own variance and average expected value.
Over the course of hundreds or thousands of bets, your calculation will be more accurate. If you a🎃re a successful punter and place a large number of bets, you will gradually see your variance decreasing. This, of course, depends on your skills of predicting value bets.
Other Strategies To Find Value in Betting
Compiling and comparing bookie odds, which is what the two of the software above do, is only one of the many ways to find val🌳ue in betting. The following are the most popul✃ar:
Developing Your Own Statistical Model
Bookies rely on all sorts of statistics, such as league averages, player averages, and team averages to create statistical models. They use methods like Poisson distribution and normal distribution to calculate how likely an event is. Needless to say, nothing is to stop you from coming up with your own models.
Ratings Systems
Ratings systems are used for seeding in tournaments, such as chess, tennis, and football. Elo ratings, in particular, are some of the most commonly used. Feel free to use available rating systems, or create your own to calculate the relative strength of a team or player.
Tipsters
Tipsters are often retired punters who are banned by the bookies for winning too much. They now sell their knowledge to anyone who is willing to pay. Of cour༒se, you need to know the difference bet💙ween tipsters and fraudsters.
TIP:
The best way to do this is to look at their history of bets and see if they can prove an ROI based on their tips.
Comparing Odds
This is the easiest and most obvious strategy. If you have an account at multiple bookies and one bookie offers better odds than another does, you have proven value for a bet. We suggest comparing odds to get the bes𒀰t deal.
In-Play Value Betting
In-play betting has a huge opportunity for value. A team or player could be getting beat for a while before it is reflected in the odds💃. Finding value is all about timing.
Example
In MMA, before the fight, fighter A is a heavy 🍎favourite at 1.38, Fighter B is the underdog at 3.25. In the first minute of the fight, Fighter B scores a knockdown. The odds will change in almost real time. However, fighter B will still be an underdog, now perhaps at 2.80. You now have fighter A who is rocked, wobbled, possibly hurt, and for some reason is still a hot favourite. Thisꦗ is a good time to bet on fighter B.
As you can see, this is a good strategy for finding 𝔉value and you can apply it to almost any sport. Another advantage is that you can bet against yourself or cash out your bet if things are not going your way.
ThePuntersPage Final Say
Finding value is the most important part of sports betting as you need to ensure that you are making money over the course of thousands of bets. There is no guarantee you will win every bet unless you use arbitrage betting, and such opportunities are few and far between. Value bets are your best c🐬hoice.
As long as you are able to identify value in bets consistently (whatever your strategy for doing that is), you are likely to beat the bookies. Keep in mind that you will need to place smaller bets — usually less than 5% of your bankroll. If you can get an ROI of💯 2.5% or more, you are on your way to becoming a professional punter.
FAQs
You can easily calculate the value of your bet using the following formula: Value = (Amount won per bet x probability of winning) – (Amount lost per bet x probability of losing) This calculation depends on your estimation of the 💝probability of winning and offers no guarantees.
Odds let you know how likely a team is to win — they carry implied probability. For example, odds of 3.0 or 2/1 offer an implied probab🐈ility of 33.3%. That means the odds of winniꦓng are 1 in 3.
To win a bet every time, you need to use arbitrage betting. Arbs are a wa🧜y to bet against yourself and still win. If two bookies see the same team as an underdog and a favourite respectively, you can bet with both and still make a profit. RebelBetting (see above) offers arbing software, which detects arbitrage bets from online bookies across the world.
Simply put, a value bet is one wh🥀ere the likelihood of a given outcome is higher than the odds offered by the bookmaker ওreflect.
While there’s no guꦕarantee of winning every supposed ‘value bet’, you’re more likely to earn a profit in the long haul by placing such bets.
Value bets are much more common and less time consuming♊ than arbitrage bets. These ‘sure bets’ supposedly guarantee succe🐲ss, even if the profits are small, while value bets don’t guarantee profits.
It’s always worth comparing the odds of bookmakers to see which feature the best odds for par⛄ticular events / markets. It’s also worth using Trademate and RebelBetting to identify value bets.